Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
26 0x26ff…23e6 crypto 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate73%30W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day126.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 32% -8.3%
≤30d 41 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 32% -8.3%
≤90d 41 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 32% -8.3%
all 41 -4.7% -13.8% 73% 32% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 32% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 17% -17.1%
15% -29.6% 10% -25.1%
20% -36.5% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses30 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day126.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 33¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $72 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $43 −$29 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $12 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$13 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $124 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $36 +$21 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 29 $68 +$18 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $22 +$19 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $62 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $71 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $61 −$18 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 29 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $57 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $52 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $40 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $11 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $12 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.99 · official $1.99 (match) · 162 history records