Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2702…e7af politics 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$60 (-0%) realized −$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$34
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$19
politics 23% −$16
other 21% −$27
crypto 13% −$4
economics 5% −$3
culture 4% −$6
world 4% +$2
tech 3% −$6
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -0.9% -10.4% 10% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 55 -1.2% -10.6% 9% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 109 -0.7% -10.2% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 131 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage107d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $116 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $104 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $41 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $287 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $42 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $119 −$2 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $82 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $57 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Thibaut Courtois record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 10 $55 −$15 -27%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 09 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $233 −$2 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $11 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $229 −$1 -1%
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $42 $0 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 02 $52 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $163 −$2 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $55 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $168 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $97 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 22 $43 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $39 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $35 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $35 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $56 6h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $55 14h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $43 15h
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $44 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 22h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 29h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $56 29h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $9 35h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $19 35h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $29 35h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $44 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $46 44h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $50 45h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $51 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $41 2d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $41 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $56 3d
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $57 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $41 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $41 4d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 90¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.06 · official $39.06 (match) · 521 history records