Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:31:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x2702…3cc4 sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$162 (+4%) realized +$183 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%45W / 35L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days−$74
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$178
other 23% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +15.2% +4.2% 67% 67% -0.9%
≤30d 38 +8.4% -1.9% 61% 55% +5.7%
≤90d 79 -1.7% -11.1% 57% 52% -5.6%
all 80 -2.0% -11.3% 56% 51% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 51% -6.0%
10% -19.8% 49% -15.0%
15% -27.6% 42% -23.2%
20% -34.7% 30% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$26 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized+$183
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses45 / 35
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage103d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 Yes 83¢ 80¢ $513 $492 −$21 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$20 +70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $27 +$21 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $35 +$15 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $89 +$32 +35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $27 +$23 +85%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 +$12 +89%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $22 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $27 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $33 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $28 +$22 +82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $36 +$14 +41%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $24 −$14 -57%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $52 +$19 +36%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $51 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $24 +$25 +104%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $66 +$34 +52%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $67 +$33 +49%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $59 +$12 +21%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $72 +$18 +25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $25 +$27 +105%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $27 +$23 +85%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $16 +$10 +61%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$25 +124%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $26 −$1 -5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $58 +$42 +72%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 25 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $39 −$17 -44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs MIBR (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 24 $74 +$26 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $63 +$19 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 22 $49 +$33 +67%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $40 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $30 +$21 +70%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $62 +$38 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $112 41m
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $101 59m
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $51 1h
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $50 1h
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will GamerLegion Qualify to The International 2026 BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 59¢ $30 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 93¢ $48 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $27 29h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $35 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $2 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 74¢ $21 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $27 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 73¢ $52 10d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 42¢ $21 11d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $13 11d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $22 12d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 58¢ $29 12d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $27 12d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 54¢ $13 13d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 54¢ $14 13d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 60¢ $30 13d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $33 15d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $36 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.74 · official $491.74 (match) · 220 history records