Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x2706…c6be weather 1207 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$403 (+7%) realized +$402 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%712W / 390L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$46
14 days+$2
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$233
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 252 +7.6% -2.6% 67% 52% -5.4%
≤30d 665 +5.2% -4.8% 65% 49% -5.3%
≤90d 1102 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 48% -5.9%
all 1102 +3.8% -6.1% 65% 48% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 48% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 34% -14.9%
15% -23.3% 23% -23.1%
20% -30.8% 13% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$402
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses712 / 390
Open positions72
Markets (closed)1102 / 1207
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 1102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 42°C on June 23? No 94¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 43°C on June 23? No 95¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 22? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 22? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 22? No 88¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 23? No 78¢ 75¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 23? No 96¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 23? No 85¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 22? No 94¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 23? No 91¢ 96¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 22? No 68¢ 89¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 22? No 83¢ 80¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 22? No 82¢ 90¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 22? Yes 9¢ 28¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+229%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 22? No 73¢ 82¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 22? No 87¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? No 90¢ 84¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 22? No 79¢ 85¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? No 81¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 22? No 91¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 23? No 87¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Yes 9¢ 36¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+306%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 +$7 +640%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 21? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 21? Jun 22 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 22 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 +$9 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $3 +$13 +391%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $2 +$7 +281%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 19? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 19? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 19? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 20? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 20? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or below on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL Yes 93¢ $8 0m
BUY 80¢ $1 31m
BUY 72¢ $2 52m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $1 1h
BUY 87¢ $2 1h
BUY 9¢ $1 1h
BUY 96¢ $8 1h
BUY 68¢ $1 1h
BUY 79¢ $2 1h
BUY 64¢ $1 1h
BUY 68¢ $4 1h
BUY 9¢ $1 1h
BUY 91¢ $2 1h
BUY 96¢ $8 2h
BUY 81¢ $2 2h
BUY 86¢ $2 2h
BUY 66¢ $1 2h
BUY 83¢ $3 2h
BUY 82¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 56¢ $1 2h
BUY 4¢ $1 3h
BUY 86¢ $1 3h
BUY 22¢ $1 3h
BUY 65¢ $1 3h
BUY 71¢ $4 3h
BUY 6¢ $0 3h
BUY 18¢ $1 3h
BUY 70¢ $1 3h
BUY 88¢ $2 3h
BUY 19¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.83 · official $275.84 (match) · 3500 history records