Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2707…744f crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,468 (-21%) realized −$8,466 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%69W / 69L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$118est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$3,786
30 days−$9,411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$6,914
sports 36% −$2,499
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 25% -14.6%
≤30d 138 -14.5% -22.7% 50% 34% -30.5%
≤90d 138 -14.5% -22.7% 50% 34% -30.5%
all 138 -14.5% -22.7% 50% 34% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 34% -30.5%
10% -30.1% 29% -37.1%
15% -36.8% 25% -43.2%
20% -43.0% 18% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$251 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$8,466
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses69 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$118
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage29d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? Up 53¢ 48¢ $26 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? Jun 25 $21 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $3 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $65 +$3 +4%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $910 +$89 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $902 +$88 +10%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $968 +$131 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 14 $630 −$399 -63%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 14 $4,342 −$3,794 -87%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $890 +$100 +11%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $404 −$6 -1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $930 +$69 +7%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $406 +$94 +23%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,040 +$48 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 11 $7,343 +$5,992 +82%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14? Jun 11 $20 +$1 +3%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $128 +$11 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $132 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$11 -89%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $3,023 +$15 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 08 $306 −$300 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $154 −$110 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $103 −$96 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $503 +$47 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $257 −$50 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $206 +$56 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$17 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $51 +$26 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$10 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $121 −$4 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$9 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$14 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$9 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 08 $20 +$10 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $21 +$12 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$6 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 08 $11 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 53¢ $26 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 58m
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? SELL Up 53¢ $31 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 26? BUY Up 48¢ $30 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 20h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 21h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 22h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 46¢ $3 7d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $31 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $7 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $3 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $20 9d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner SELL Solary 99¢ $67 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 95¢ $12 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 95¢ $2 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 95¢ $2 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 95¢ $49 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner SELL Solary 100¢ $999 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 91¢ $692 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 91¢ $129 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 91¢ $51 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 91¢ $11 11d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 91¢ $9 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.19 · official $22.47 (match) · 501 history records