Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2708…6f6c weather 589 markets active 15h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$143 (-6%) realized −$134 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%103W / 481L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$67
14 days−$91
30 days−$379
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$232
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -39.7% -45.5% 11% 11% -48.8%
≤30d 214 -27.1% -34.0% 14% 14% -41.3%
≤90d 584 -6.0% -15.0% 18% 18% -18.7%
all 584 -6.0% -15.0% 18% 18% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 18% -18.7%
10% -23.1% 18% -26.4%
15% -30.6% 18% -33.6%
20% -37.4% 17% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$4 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$134
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses103 / 481
Open positions5
Markets (closed)584 / 589
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +286%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +233%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +381%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +338%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 14h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 18? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 1796 history records