Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
27 0x270d…ee74 crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (81 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate89%81W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day81.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (81 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 46% -6.8%
≤30d 91 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 46% -6.8%
≤90d 91 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 46% -6.8%
all 91 +3.3% -6.6% 89% 46% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 46% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 11% -15.7%
15% -23.7% 3% -23.9%
20% -31.1% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses81 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day81.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 222 history records