Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:27:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x270f…5e39
crypto · 472 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,495 -65%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$928 · open −$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$115
Realized−$928
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses155 / 292
Open positions25
Markets (closed)447 / 472
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day144.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 25 History 447 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$192
7 days−$572
14 days−$919
30 days−$928
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-36%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-17%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-32%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +107%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +24%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$4 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$6 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$8 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $17 −$6 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$18 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$913
other 8% −$29
world 0% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -30.3% -36.9% 34% 29% -40.0%
≤30d 447 -21.6% -29.1% 35% 30% -34.4%
≤90d 447 -21.6% -29.1% 35% 30% -34.4%
all 447 -21.6% -29.1% 35% 30% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover144.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 30% -34.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.9% 24% -40.7%
15% -42.1% 18% -46.4%
20% -47.8% 14% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.28 · official $115.29 (match) · 3500 history records