Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
27 0x2710…06f9 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$896 (+38%) realized +$930 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$51
14 days+$678
30 days+$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$874
other 38% +$41
crypto 4% −$83
weather 1% +$16
tech 0% −$2
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.4% -18.1% 57% 43% -0.6%
≤30d 15 +9.4% -1.0% 47% 40% +25.5%
≤90d 35 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 29% +28.7%
all 35 -4.5% -13.6% 37% 29% +28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 29% +28.7%
10% -21.9% 29% +16.4%
15% -29.4% 26% +5.2%
20% -36.3% 20% -5.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +42% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$27 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$930
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage90d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $183 $154 −$28 (-15%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $60 $54 −$6 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $139 +$61 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$22 -71%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$52 -52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 +$52 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $164 +$635 +388%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 −$9 -22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $87 −$83 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $86 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $161 −$161 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 26 $38 −$3 -7%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $113 +$89 +78%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $102 +$72 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 22 $228 −$14 -6%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $194 +$196 +101%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $70 +$288 +414%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $3 −$2 -77%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $25 −$14 -57%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 29 $15 −$1 -7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? Apr 29 $33 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 29 $33 $0 +1%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 25 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 26 Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on March 26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 27? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 27? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 78°F or higher on March 26? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $20 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Ma Mar 25 $13 +$22 +173%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Mar 25 $10 −$2 -16%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $10 −$5 -54%
Blue Jackets vs. Flyers Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $84 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 31¢ $37 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 8h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 27h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $200 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $28 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $111 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $49 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $81 3d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $46 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $32 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 30¢ $32 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $50 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $41 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $82 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $79 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $86 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 41¢ $92 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 59¢ $36 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 41¢ $31 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.84 · official $217.69 · 85 history records