Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2712…4ff0 world 98 markets active 0h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%36W / 59L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$5
other 26% +$2
politics 19% −$2
sports 16% +$11
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 +7.3% -2.9% 44% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 65 +3.2% -6.6% 37% 5% -9.6%
all 95 +2.5% -7.2% 38% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 4% -9.3%
10% -16.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -24.2% 2% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses36 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage484d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $88 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $29 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $116 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $11 −$2 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $22 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $31 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $29 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $2 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $2 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $1 $0 +6%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 27m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 43h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $29 45h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $29 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $29 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $31 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $31 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $21 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $8 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $28 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $29 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $29 8d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.31 · official $0.00 · 316 history records