Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x2714…960f sports 1263 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,507 (+0%) realized +$1,667 · open −$160
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%678W / 581L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$4,953est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,828now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$6,078
other 9% −$923
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.7% -7.1% 53% 53% -2.9%
≤30d 391 +2.8% -7.0% 55% 55% -7.3%
≤90d 1259 +2.3% -7.4% 54% 54% -8.3%
all 1259 +2.3% -7.4% 54% 54% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 54% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 54% -17.1%
15% -24.4% 51% -25.1%
20% -31.8% 46% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$303 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1,828
Realized+$1,667
Unrealized−$160
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses678 / 581
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$4,953
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1259 / 1263
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$318
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ 79¢ $430 $790 +$360 (+84%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 52¢ $416 $416 +$0 (+0%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 52¢ 50¢ $364 $346 −$18 (-5%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58¢ 46¢ $348 $273 −$75 (-21%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 43¢ 0¢ $430 $2 −$428 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 292 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 25 $73 −$73 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $484 +$516 +107%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $547 +$453 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $517 +$483 +93%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $527 −$520 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $447 +$553 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $322 +$278 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $508 +$492 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $407 −$400 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $508 −$500 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 23 $457 −$450 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $500 +$500 +100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 22 $457 −$450 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 22 $537 −$530 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $557 +$443 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $607 +$393 +65%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $487 +$513 +105%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $557 +$443 +79%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 21 $527 −$520 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $487 −$480 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $477 +$523 +109%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $292 +$308 +105%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $357 −$350 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $517 +$483 +93%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $334 −$330 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $539 −$535 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $657 −$650 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $491 +$509 +104%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $597 +$403 +67%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $437 +$563 +129%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $537 +$463 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $726 +$274 +38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $292 −$288 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 19 $387 −$380 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $627 −$620 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $427 −$420 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $397 +$603 +152%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $397 −$390 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $264 +$336 +127%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $547 +$453 +83%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $447 +$553 +124%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $557 −$550 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $607 +$393 +65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $530 −$530 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $497 −$490 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $316 +$284 +90%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $301 +$299 +100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $577 +$423 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $347 +$653 +188%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $627 +$373 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ $437 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 43¢ $437 3h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $256 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $228 17h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $547 18h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 51¢ $517 21h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $527 26h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $447 40h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $322 42h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 40¢ $407 43h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $508 44h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $457 44h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $508 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 50¢ $500 2d
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 45¢ $457 2d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $537 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $607 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $557 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $527 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $557 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 48¢ $487 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $487 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $477 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 35¢ $357 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 55¢ $334 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 48¢ $292 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $102 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $6 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $18 5d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,828.00 · official $1,793.00 · 3500 history records