Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x2715…996e other 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$43 (+15%) realized +$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$59
sports 14% −$14
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 47% 41% +7.5%
≤30d 33 -4.1% -13.2% 45% 39% +4.9%
≤90d 33 -4.1% -13.2% 45% 39% +4.9%
all 33 -4.1% -13.2% 45% 39% +4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 39% +4.9%
10% -21.5% 36% -5.1%
15% -29.1% 30% -14.3%
20% -36.1% 24% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 36
History coverage16d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$21 +50%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +426%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $53 +$6 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 +$2 +240%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +104%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 +$4 +74%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$9 +30%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 +$3 +64%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$15 +290%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$15 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Bhutan win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $41 12h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $5 12h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $5 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $5 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $1 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 21h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $53 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? SELL Yes $3 45h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $0 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 46h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1.00 (match) · 63 history records