trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 44% | 11% | -11.6% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -1.0% | -10.4% | 44% | 11% | -11.6% |
| all | 19 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 53% | 5% | -10.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.7% | 5% | -10.8% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 0% | -19.3% |
| 15% | -26.2% | 0% | -27.1% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 0% | -34.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 89¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 27 | $16 | −$1 | -5% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 26 | $6 | +$1 | +14% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 24 | $14 | −$1 | -10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 23 | $27 | +$1 | +3% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 23 | $44 | −$4 | -10% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 21 | $42 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $39 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the | Jun 24 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | May 07 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will 0 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon's | Apr 02 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 01 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 31 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 30 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? | Mar 20 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 10 | $15 | $0 | +0% |