Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:46:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2718…85fc crypto 1425 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$429 (-1%) realized −$429 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%1392W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day91.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$11
14 days+$103
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$127
other 5% −$587
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 487 +0.7% -8.9% 97% 2% -9.1%
≤30d 1424 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 2% -10.4%
≤90d 1424 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 2% -10.4%
all 1424 +0.2% -9.3% 98% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover91.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 2% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -19.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$34 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$429
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1392 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1424 / 1425
History coverage17d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day91.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1424 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 42m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.02 · official $2.50 · 2971 history records