Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2718…ec73 crypto 1411 markets active 5d ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$270 (-4%) realized −$270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%833W / 578L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$27
14 days−$45
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$385
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 17% -16.8%
≤30d 961 +0.2% -9.4% 67% 49% -11.1%
≤90d 1411 -4.0% -13.2% 59% 40% -14.3%
all 1411 -4.0% -13.2% 59% 40% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 40% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 23% -22.5%
15% -29.1% 16% -30.0%
20% -36.0% 11% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses833 / 578
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1411 / 1411
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1411 Trades
no open positions (189 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +109%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $13 −$2 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$2 -13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records