Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2719…3c81 other 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate26%15W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$4
other 28% −$4
politics 8% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 15 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 0% -8.0%
all 58 -3.8% -13.0% 26% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -28.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses15 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage464d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 74¢ 74¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $51 −$3 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $45 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $107 +$7 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $3 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 17 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Bertie Ahern win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 25–August 1? Jul 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jul 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 26 $5 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 25 $11 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $6 $0 -5%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $6 $0 -1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 28 $0 $0 -60%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Switzerland win the 2025 IIHF World Championship? May 22 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $43 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $12 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $32 43h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 46h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $10 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $36 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $12 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $14 4d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $2 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $2 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $17 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $33 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 69¢ $45 20d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.21 · official $5.21 (match) · 168 history records