Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
27 0x271e…8eb9 weather 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$127 (+19%) realized +$129 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$136
14 days+$132
30 days+$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$135
sports 1% −$4
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +40.5% +27.2% 100% 75% +18.9%
≤30d 11 +14.2% +3.4% 82% 64% +16.0%
≤90d 11 +14.2% +3.4% 82% 64% +16.0%
all 11 +14.2% +3.4% 82% 64% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 64% +16.0%
10% -6.5% 55% +4.9%
15% -15.6% 36% -5.2%
20% -23.8% 18% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$5 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×12.62 per $1 lost it wins $12.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage16d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 28? No 52¢ 100¢ $50 $96 +$46 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 29? No 90¢ 96¢ $60 $64 +$4 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 28? No 82¢ 79¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? No 84¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27? Jun 27 $52 +$22 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 27? Jun 27 $51 +$14 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 26? Jun 26 $97 +$56 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 25? Jun 26 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $23 +$9 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 24? Jun 25 $93 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$13 +126%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.22 · official $208.23 (match) · 24 history records