Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
27 0x271e…f001 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$294 (+14%) realized +$294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$166
other 26% +$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +49.8% +35.5% 46% 15% +2.8%
≤30d 13 +49.8% +35.5% 46% 15% +2.8%
≤90d 13 +49.8% +35.5% 46% 15% +2.8%
all 13 +49.8% +35.5% 46% 15% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.5% 15% +2.8%
10% +22.5% 15% -7.0%
15% +10.7% 15% -16.0%
20% -0.1% 15% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +107% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$76 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage5d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $340 −$5 -1%
Ismael Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $324 +$3 +1%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $352 −$6 -2%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $65 +$477 +733%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $290 +$328 +113%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $60 −$2 -3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $486 −$486 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL No 55¢ $335 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $340 1h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 18h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals SELL No 59¢ $167 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $7 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $70 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $1 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $268 18h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 20h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $20 20h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $14 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $14 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $1 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $7 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $3 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $7 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $30 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $32 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $20 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $65 21h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $8 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $352 22h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $33 22h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $61 23h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $7 23h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 23h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $45 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records