Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:24:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2722…ecbf other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$67 (+2%) realized −$101 · open +$168
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate32%7W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$3,704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$133
14 days−$134
30 days−$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$7
politics 5% +$8
sports 5% −$24
world 5% −$1
crypto 3% +$46
economics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -23.9% -31.2% 31% 31% -37.4%
≤30d 14 -22.8% -30.2% 29% 29% -36.9%
≤90d 21 -23.5% -30.8% 29% 24% -29.9%
all 22 -22.3% -29.7% 32% 23% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 23% -23.9%
10% -36.4% 14% -31.2%
15% -42.6% 14% -37.8%
20% -48.2% 14% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$3,704
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses7 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)22 / 38
History coverage127d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $540 $674 +$134 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $640 $594 −$46 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $280 $430 +$150 (+54%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $452 $422 −$30 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $364 $334 −$30 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $344 $266 −$78 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $220 $254 +$34 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $136 $182 +$46 (+34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $112 $98 −$14 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $68 $86 +$18 (+26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $82 +$22 (+37%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $70 −$10 (-12%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $76 $66 −$10 (-13%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $68 $62 −$6 (-9%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $34 −$14 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$40 +87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$60 -59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $65 −$58 -89%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $60 −$27 -45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$11 -81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$24 +237%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 −$18 -36%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $1 −$1 -95%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $203 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Sora Matsushima Apr 05 $1 +$2 +224%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by at least 250 seats? Feb 09 $232 +$8 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $86 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $46 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $42 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 10¢ $7 5h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes $3 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $65 6h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 74¢ $30 6h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $60 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $2 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 88¢ $12 28h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $34 28h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 55¢ $33 28h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $10 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $9 30h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $8 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $33 30h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 32h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 32h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE $0 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE $1 2d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 14¢ $1 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,703.58 · official $3,703.98 (match) · 230 history records