Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2723…d384
sports · 147 markets active 0h ago
5.0score
+$58 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$56 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses67 / 78
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage188d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 145 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$54
14 days+$107
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 56¢ 46¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 48¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+108%)
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Flavio Cobolli 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Natus Vincere 59¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 46¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Under 3.5 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Kostyuk 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Djokovic 48¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Zverev 73¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Thunder 49¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-04? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Crystal Palace FC 1 - 1 Rayo Vallecano de Madrid? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 44¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang Xiyu Wang 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Bencic (+1.5) Svitolina 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-01-03? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Heroic 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jannik Sinner 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 53¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$1 -12%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $11 −$6 -53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$7 +50%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $46 +$9 +19%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -40%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $40 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $29 +$7 +25%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $39 −$9 -23%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $11 +$8 +70%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $13 +$9 +70%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $7 −$4 -56%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $10 +$7 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $18 +$21 +114%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $24 +$25 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $26 −$17 -68%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $18 −$10 -54%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $8 +$10 +133%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$8 +79%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $24 +$8 +34%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $11 −$6 -55%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $11 +$1 +9%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 05 $20 +$30 +152%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $49 −$19 -38%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Jodar (+2.5) Jun 02 $14 +$21 +145%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $26 −$12 -45%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $15 +$11 +73%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $10 −$9 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $14 +$20 +140%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $9 +$10 +109%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Belinda Bencic May 31 $25 +$11 +45%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Bencic (+1.5) May 31 $5 −$5 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $3 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $22 +$8 +38%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $8 −$5 -61%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Frances Tiafoe May 31 $6 +$11 +172%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9 +$7 +83%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $15 +$9 +62%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$31
other 21% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 49¢ $10 7m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $10 9m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $8 13m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $9 21m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 24¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $14 9h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $17 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 52¢ $8 23h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 47¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 36¢ $9 24h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 61¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 46¢ $9 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 16¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 44¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 58¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL BIG 42¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 54¢ $14 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 66¢ $24 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 57¢ $21 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 35¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 50¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL BIG 45¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +10.0% -0.5% 58% 58% +5.0%
≤30d 74 +4.6% -5.4% 53% 50% +2.2%
≤90d 74 +4.6% -5.4% 53% 50% +2.2%
all 145 -1.5% -10.9% 46% 42% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 42% -7.0%
10% -19.4% 39% -15.9%
15% -27.2% 34% -24.0%
20% -34.4% 28% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 389 history records