Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x2728…4f96 sports 1392 markets active 0h ago coverage 361d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Covers last 360d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$51,464 (-15%) realized −$51,795 · open +$331
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%575W / 809L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$247per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,639est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2,771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$901
7 days+$3,868
14 days+$2,474
30 days−$7,618
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$40,310
crypto 24% −$11,520
other 7% −$750
world 0% −$130
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 +2.8% -6.9% 49% 45% +7.2%
≤30d 296 -5.7% -14.7% 44% 41% -17.2%
≤90d 412 -7.4% -16.2% 42% 40% -18.5%
all 1384 -7.6% -16.4% 42% 39% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 39% -23.7%
10% -24.4% 38% -31.0%
15% -31.7% 36% -37.6%
20% -38.4% 33% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$176 vs −$191 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$2,771
Realized−$51,795
Unrealized+$331
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses575 / 809
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,639
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1384 / 1392
History coverage361d ⚠
Avg bet$247
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1384 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,200 $1,285 +$85 (+7%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $500 $585 +$85 (+17%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $300 $342 +$42 (+14%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 38¢ 83¢ $100 $218 +$118 (+118%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $100 $204 +$104 (+104%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $219 −$149 -68%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $307 +$268 +87%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$40 +40%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$86 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$93 +90%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $203 −$137 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$88 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$53 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$7 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$47 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$101 +98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$62 -62%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$48 -94%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$6 +6%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$99 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $305 +$347 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 +$226 +111%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$46 -90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$121 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $205 +$145 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $129 +$116 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$171 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $518 +$498 +96%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $205 −$200 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $305 −$15 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $102 −$71 -70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $102 −$48 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 5m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 38¢ $102 17m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 22m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $41 22m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 39m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 40m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $102 3h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers SELL Lotte Giants 100¢ $408 8h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $42 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 11h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL NC Dinos 17¢ $66 11h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers BUY Lotte Giants 49¢ $203 12h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 51¢ $203 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $49 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $103 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,770.80 · official $2,709.17 · 3500 history records