Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:26:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2728…a83c
other · 150 markets active 256d ago
2.5score
+$1,308,311 +134%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,308,311 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,308,311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses69 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)150 / 150
History coverage400d
Avg bet$6,514
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit54%
Chart Positions 0 History 150 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2,027 $0 −$2,027 (-100%)
Democrats win popular vote by 2-3%? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2,695 $0 −$2,695 (-100%)
Will Trump win Mississippi by 20+ points? No 49¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will another candidate get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 29 $250,749 +$237,889 +95%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Aug 22 $219,615 +$1,177,218 +536%
Trump releases Epstein list today? Aug 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will there be 150,000,000-155,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Feb 28 $6 $0 -4%
Will a Republican win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Dec 02 $44,493 +$1,242 +3%
Who will win young men? Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump do better with men than in 2020 election? Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump win 55% of voters without a college degree? Dec 02 $22,364 −$14,224 -64%
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? Dec 02 $25,384 −$25,383 -100%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? Dec 02 $25,524 −$25,524 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $26,252 −$26,252 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 02 $29,343 −$29,343 -100%
Will 538 correctly call the Presidential Election? Nov 06 $8 +$10 +136%
Kamala Rust Belt swing state sweep? Nov 05 $9,198 −$786 -8%
Will Kamala Harris win Maryland by the largest margin? Nov 05 $1,302 −$149 -11%
Will Kamala Harris win Massachusetts by the largest margin? Nov 05 $890 −$404 -46%
Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote? Nov 05 $3,328 −$601 -18%
Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Nov 05 $1,725 +$1,240 +72%
Will Kamala win 60% of women? Nov 05 $3,700 −$386 -10%
Will there be between 21 and 25 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Nov 05 $3 +$12 +365%
RFK Jr & Cheryl Hines divorce in 2024? Nov 05 $47 +$5 +10%
Will Kamala Harris win Vermont by the largest margin? Nov 05 $799 −$61 -8%
Will 3rd parties cost Kamala Michigan? Nov 05 $304 −$8 -3%
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election? Nov 05 $14,000 −$1,100 -8%
Will another candidate get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Nov 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the AP call the election on November 7? Nov 05 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Trump win Mississippi by 20+ points? Nov 05 $4 −$3 -75%
Will another movie gross most in 2024? Nov 05 $2,225 +$22 +1%
Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 1-2.0%? Nov 04 $1,822 +$34 +2%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 04 $1,800 $0 +0%
Will Trump get more votes than 2020? Nov 04 $960 +$200 +21%
Will Chase Oliver get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Nov 04 $120 +$226 +189%
Trump gets more black voters than in 2020? Nov 04 $9,847 +$2,426 +25%
Will Trump win Wyoming by 50+ points? Nov 03 $136 +$24 +18%
Will Kamala Harris win all 6 swing states? Nov 03 $2,000 −$118 -6%
Will the AP call the election on November 5? Nov 03 $2 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Nov 03 $1,380 +$100 +7%
Will Vermin Supreme get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Nov 03 $1,982 −$2 -0%
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state? Nov 03 $12,666 −$3,207 -25%
Will Trump win 30% of Black men? Nov 03 $57,543 +$5,736 +10%
Will Trump do better in Florida or Alaska? Nov 03 $932 +$26 +3%
Who will win late deciders? Nov 02 $9 +$3 +32%
Will Trump win Iowa by 12+ points? Nov 02 $2,489 +$680 +27%
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Seas Nov 02 $3,748 +$1,048 +28%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Nov 02 $2,150 +$50 +2%
Who will win women? Nov 01 $327 +$18 +5%
Will Cornel West get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Nov 01 $1,346 −$1 -0%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 01 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024? Oct 31 $1,056 +$4 +0%
Will Kamala win New York by 10+ points? Oct 31 $29,671 +$54 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% +$1,449,816
politics 34% −$120,017
weather 3% −$22,624
culture 0% +$408
tech 0% +$882
world 0% +$104
sports 0% −$280
crypto 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 92¢ $53,112 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 92¢ $63,586 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 94¢ $60,517 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 94¢ $1,880 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 94¢ $62,397 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 94¢ $61,655 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 93¢ $59,942 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 93¢ $1,860 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 93¢ $61,802 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? SELL No 93¢ $61,777 256d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $6,243 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $250 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $250 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $15,000 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $33,017 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $4,355 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $20,569 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $3,937 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $494 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 48¢ $829 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $16,929 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $500 290d
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? BUY No 50¢ $2,862 290d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 150 +12.8% +2.1% 46% 30% +111.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.1% 30% +111.6%
10% ← realistic here -7.7% 24% +91.4%
15% -16.6% 19% +72.9%
20% -24.8% 17% +55.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3200 history records