Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:57:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2728…a057 crypto 212 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$179 (-24%) realized −$30 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%105W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$149
crypto 34% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -57.6% -61.6% 0% 0% -61.6%
≤30d 2 -57.6% -61.6% 0% 0% -61.6%
≤90d 211 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 39% -22.2%
all 211 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 39% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 39% -22.2%
10% -25.5% 31% -29.7%
15% -32.7% 27% -36.5%
20% -39.3% 21% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses105 / 106
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage108d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 25¢ $498 $349 −$149 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 01 $1 +$1 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 30 $1 +$2 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.39 · official $349.39 (match) · 591 history records