Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
27 0x272c…7f07 other 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,779 (+8%) realized +$3,223 · open −$444
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%140W / 221L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$518
7 days+$658
14 days+$1,298
30 days+$1,855
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,740
world 39% +$934
tech 7% +$31
politics 4% +$296
sports 1% +$91
culture 1% −$26
finance 1% −$37
economics 0% +$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +48.7% +34.5% 67% 47% +0.5%
≤30d 133 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 32% -0.2%
≤90d 361 +2.3% -7.5% 39% 28% +0.5%
all 361 +2.3% -7.5% 39% 28% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 28% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 22% -9.1%
15% -24.4% 18% -17.9%
20% -31.8% 14% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$16 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,162
Realized+$3,223
Unrealized−$444
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses140 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions34
Markets (closed)361 / 395
History coverage99d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 90¢ $445 $497 +$52 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $260 $238 −$22 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $140 $118 −$22 (-16%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 45¢ 54¢ $68 $81 +$14 (+20%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes 37¢ 67¢ $19 $34 +$15 (+81%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $44 $31 −$12 (-28%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $35 $20 −$15 (-43%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 12¢ $42 $17 −$25 (-59%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-21%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 4¢ $67 $12 −$55 (-81%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $24 $11 −$13 (-55%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $3 $10 +$7 (+233%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $76 $10 −$66 (-87%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $28 $8 −$20 (-73%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $45 $7 −$38 (-84%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-44%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $20 $6 −$14 (-72%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $26 $6 −$20 (-79%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-69%)
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-80%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $48 $4 −$44 (-92%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? Yes 24¢ 7¢ $11 $3 −$8 (-71%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $58 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $33 −$6 -19%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? Jun 25 $20 +$86 +429%
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 Jun 25 $99 +$3 +3%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 25 $104 +$158 +153%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? Jun 25 $854 +$161 +19%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 25 $2,155 −$4 -0%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? Jun 25 $1,270 +$34 +3%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? Jun 25 $425 +$5 +1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $106 +$87 +82%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $256 +$28 +11%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 21 $82 −$13 -16%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $55 +$40 +72%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $390 +$86 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$4 +26%
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? Jun 18 $49 −$7 -13%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $282 +$74 +26%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $858 +$102 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 17 $105 +$51 +48%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $220 +$148 +67%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $940 +$10 +1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $36 −$17 -47%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 16 $111 −$4 -3%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $39 +$9 +22%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $66 +$6 +10%
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$16 -40%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $384 −$75 -20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $870 +$104 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $104 +$86 +83%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $29 +$14 +50%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $69 +$8 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $116 +$341 +295%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $83 −$47 -57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $112 +$156 +140%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$40 -74%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? Jun 14 $29 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -97%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $25 −$21 -84%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $93 −$48 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $401 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $215 +$81 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $166 +$7 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $58 52m
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $58 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 2h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $39 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $38 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $74 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $186 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $283 8h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL Yes 72¢ $72 8h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $12 10h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $14 10h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $13 10h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $12 10h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 26? SELL No 90¢ $17 10h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? SELL No 84¢ $127 10h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 96¢ $125 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $255 12h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL No 97¢ $1,556 13h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? SELL Yes 97¢ $867 13h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? SELL Yes 96¢ $262 13h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80? SELL No 95¢ $357 13h
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70? BUY Yes 98¢ $884 13h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY No 98¢ $1,569 13h
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $130 24h
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,162.47 · official $1,162.21 (match) · 2540 history records