Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x272c…0d00 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%7W / 94L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$256per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$7
other 22% −$13
politics 21% −$12
culture 8% +$1
crypto 7% −$2
world 7% −$4
economics 6% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 101 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses7 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage168d
Avg bet$256
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 19 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $477 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 03 $185 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $185 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 03 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $826 −$2 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $193 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 03 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 02 $190 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 02 $527 −$2 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $849 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $400 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 02 $902 +$3 +0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 02 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 02 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 02 $409 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $1,456 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 02 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $202 −$1 -1%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 02 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 02 $755 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $193 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 02 $195 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $203 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $434 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $426 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 02 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 02 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 02 $203 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 02 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 02 $208 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 02 $198 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 02 $216 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $39 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $47 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $48 7d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $46 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $47 22d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $53 29d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $53 29d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $51 42d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $52 42d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $184 115d
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $185 115d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $192 115d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $192 115d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 90¢ $185 115d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 90¢ $185 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $188 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $188 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $193 115d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $193 115d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $193 115d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $193 115d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $188 115d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $188 115d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $190 115d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $190 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $190 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $191 115d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $186 115d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $187 115d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $186 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.88 · official $38.88 (match) · 350 history records