Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x272d…bc2f sports 1005 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$11,076 (+6%) realized +$11,812 · open −$736
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate59%594W / 406L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day23.5pace
Fees−$2,504est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$547now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$654
7 days−$413
14 days−$807
30 days+$8,606
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,050
other 0% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +11.4% +0.8% 67% 64% -11.7%
≤30d 516 +7.1% -3.1% 63% 58% -3.0%
≤90d 1000 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 55% -5.7%
all 1000 +2.8% -7.0% 59% 55% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 55% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 48% -14.8%
15% -24.0% 41% -23.0%
20% -31.4% 33% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$167 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$547
Realized+$11,812
Unrealized−$736
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses594 / 406
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$2,504
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1000 / 1005
History coverage67d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day23.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1000 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Corentin Moutet 55¢ 50¢ $258 $237 −$21 (-8%)
Set Handicap: Bax (-1.5) vs D'agostino (+1.5) Dagostino 54¢ 50¢ $181 $169 −$12 (-6%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 43¢ 23¢ $157 $84 −$73 (-47%)
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Federico Bondioli 33¢ 100¢ $16 $50 +$34 (+206%)
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Under 54¢ $670 $7 −$663 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 346 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Hesse (-1.5) vs Gimbrere (+1.5) Jun 16 $18 +$11 +62%
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn Jun 16 $303 +$151 +50%
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi Jun 16 $86 +$38 +44%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $212 −$209 -99%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $529 +$371 +70%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $303 +$165 +55%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$16 +70%
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris Jun 15 $304 +$188 +62%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $607 +$367 +60%
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 15 $66 +$22 +34%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $300 +$19 +6%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $189 −$185 -98%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $217 +$231 +106%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $261 +$60 +23%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $442 −$437 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $306 −$300 -98%
Piratas de Quebradillas vs. Capitanes de Arecibo Jun 14 $37 +$9 +24%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $537 +$186 +34%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $72 +$18 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Sonmez vs Tararudee Jun 13 $2 +$1 +60%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$6 +158%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $709 +$1,215 +171%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 13 $23 −$23 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $511 −$500 -98%
David Jorda Sanchis vs. Tristan Boyer: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $91 −$89 -97%
Kovacevic vs. Mmoh: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +27%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Mannarino (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $509 +$741 +146%
Alexander Bublik vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $67 +$87 +129%
ITF Varnamo: Aristotelis Thanos vs Niels Mcdonald Jun 13 $5 +$3 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $507 −$500 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Demin vs Chepelev Jun 13 $181 +$26 +14%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $359 +$187 +52%
ITF Maanshan: Pawit Sornlaksup vs Kokoro Isomura Jun 13 $70 +$12 +17%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $146 −$144 -98%
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 12 $4 +$6 +152%
Nuno Borges vs. Marin Cilic: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $39 +$61 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $605 −$244 -40%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $940 −$932 -99%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $45 −$45 -99%
ITF kiseljak: Sergi Perez Contri vs Yanis Ghazouani Durand Jun 12 $74 −$72 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $306 −$300 -98%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $201 +$65 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 43¢ $14 56m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 43¢ $28 56m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 43¢ $111 57m
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg BUY Genaro Alberto Olivieri 45¢ $7 57m
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Federico Bondioli 33¢ $17 1h
Set Handicap: Bax (-1.5) vs D'agostino (+1.5) BUY Dagostino 54¢ $183 1h
Set Handicap: Hesse (-1.5) vs Gimbrere (+1.5) BUY Hesse 61¢ $18 1h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $71 2h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $304 2h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $304 2h
Set 1 Winner: Khachanov vs Quinn BUY Khachanov 66¢ $303 2h
ITF Milano: Nicola Rispoli vs Gian Marco Ortenzi BUY Gian Marco Ortenzi 69¢ $86 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu BUY Wushuang Zheng 52¢ $212 8h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 49¢ $220 12h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 67¢ $303 12h
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez BUY Belle Thompson 57¢ $6 12h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 64¢ $303 12h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 55¢ $262 16h
Nottingham 2: Coleman Wong vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 61¢ $304 17h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 58¢ $23 18h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 38¢ $189 20h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 57¢ $304 20h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 67¢ $303 20h
Paul vs. Svajda: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 74¢ $66 20h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 94¢ $300 21h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Maya Joint 69¢ $303 21h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 34¢ $306 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $304 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 52¢ $16 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $122 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.00 · official $547.00 (match) · 2112 history records