Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
27 0x272e…e55a sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+16%) realized +$243 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%27W / 23L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day19.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$101
other 31% +$77
world 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +13.3% +2.5% 54% 44% +2.8%
≤30d 50 +13.3% +2.5% 54% 44% +2.8%
≤90d 50 +13.3% +2.5% 54% 44% +2.8%
all 50 +13.3% +2.5% 54% 44% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 44% +2.8%
10% -7.3% 36% -7.0%
15% -16.3% 34% -16.0%
20% -24.5% 32% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses27 / 23
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 $0 +1%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $120 +$6 +5%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$15 -72%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $77 +$4 +6%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $91 −$79 -86%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $71 +$50 +70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $20 −$10 -48%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$11 +55%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 +$19 +16%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $107 −$14 -13%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$22 +107%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Enzo Fernandez join Real Madrid? Jun 18 $51 −$3 -6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $98 +$36 +36%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 18 $20 −$7 -34%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $141 +$19 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$9 -44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$16 +81%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$32 +308%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -77%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$5 -52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Second half draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $10 −$7 -71%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$43 +416%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$6 -63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$19 +185%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$47 +231%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +107%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$4 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$6 +63%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +143%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $26 +$27 +107%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $15 +$21 +136%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $20 +$11 +53%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $5 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $22 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $30 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 2h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $81 3h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 94¢ $37 3h
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $40 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over $12 3h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 4h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 4h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $121 4h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 18¢ $11 4h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 5h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 5h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 5h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 5h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 33¢ $20 5h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $31 5h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 84¢ $50 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 27h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $93 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records