Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x272e…6e99 weather 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-2%) realized −$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate46%154W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$168
14 days−$139
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 92% −$350
other 5% −$47
politics 2% −$60
world 1% −$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -5.0% -14.1% 17% 6% -20.5%
≤30d 158 +4.1% -5.8% 29% 16% -18.6%
≤90d 336 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 28% -15.0%
all 336 +4.1% -5.8% 46% 28% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 28% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 19% -23.2%
15% -23.0% 12% -30.6%
20% -30.6% 8% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses154 / 182
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)336 / 336
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 336 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $49 −$17 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? Jun 24 $31 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? Jun 24 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? Jun 24 $33 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? Jun 24 $31 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $26 −$6 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 25? Jun 24 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $31 −$5 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 23 $8 −$5 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $21 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $31 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 23 $25 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 22 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $71 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $39 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $57 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$4 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $32 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 22? Jun 21 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 22? Jun 21 $19 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22? Jun 21 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Jun 21 $52 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $26 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 22? Jun 21 $6 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? SELL No 32¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 49¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? SELL No 59¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 60¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 60¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 60¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? SELL No 66¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 56¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 56¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 56¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 56¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 64¢ $33 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? BUY No 66¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? SELL No 59¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? SELL No 60¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? BUY No 61¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 63¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 63¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? SELL No 63¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 63¢ $32 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 39¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 25? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records