Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:24:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x272f…0303 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9 (+5%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%38W / 37L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$3
sports 13% +$3
other 12% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 51% -8.5%
≤30d 75 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 51% -8.5%
≤90d 75 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 51% -8.5%
all 75 +5.2% -4.8% 51% 51% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 51% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 49% -17.2%
15% -22.2% 39% -25.2%
20% -29.9% 37% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +80% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses38 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +51%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +205%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +72%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 53m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 41¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 76¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $1 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1 13h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $1 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 20h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $1 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $1 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records