Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2735…42eb sports 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,934 (-1%) realized −$10,934 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate75%344W / 112L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,792per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$2,564est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,112
7 days+$156
14 days+$156
30 days−$4,851
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$21,715
other 27% +$11,786
crypto 1% −$299
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -22.2% -29.6% 62% 33% -8.9%
≤30d 82 -22.1% -29.5% 59% 44% -18.4%
≤90d 440 -2.3% -11.6% 75% 36% -10.9%
all 456 -2.0% -11.3% 75% 37% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 37% -10.7%
10% -19.8% 25% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -27.6% 16% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 11% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$1,864) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$241 vs −$832 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,934
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses344 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$2,564
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage107d ⚠
Avg bet$1,792
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,985 +$1,339 +68%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $1,846 +$139 +8%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1,778 +$70 +4%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $1,037 −$193 -19%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka Jun 18 $353 −$350 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $130 −$130 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $503 +$278 +55%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,796 +$149 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $750 −$750 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $945 +$174 +18%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $2,155 +$211 +10%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $910 +$70 +8%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $950 +$30 +3%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $48 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,681 +$392 +23%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,448 +$236 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $983 +$470 +48%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $396 −$396 -100%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $238 +$157 +66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,040 −$1,033 -99%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $974 +$294 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $890 −$880 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,153 −$1,153 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 30 $148 −$148 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Le May 30 $119 −$119 -100%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Rec May 30 $156 −$154 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $103 +$69 +67%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $985 +$723 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $964 −$956 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $145 +$57 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $477 −$472 -99%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs BIG - Game 4 Winner May 28 $364 −$364 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Alina Korneeva May 28 $977 +$766 +78%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner May 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 28 $16 +$8 +49%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 28 $981 −$981 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) May 28 $1,258 −$1,249 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $209 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 27 $104 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $23 −$22 -96%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner May 27 $245 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 27 $106 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Challen May 27 $355 −$353 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 59¢ $1,958 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 58¢ $12 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY South Africa 58¢ $14 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $1,846 3h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 100¢ $1,849 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 96¢ $1,506 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 96¢ $26 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 96¢ $246 4h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 100¢ $526 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $24 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $40 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $12 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $9 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $60 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $94 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $182 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 81¢ $6 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 13¢ $39 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 19¢ $38 5h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 48¢ $17 5h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Martyna Kubka BUY Alina Korneeva 69¢ $276 6h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 42¢ $210 6h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 73¢ $530 6h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $27 7h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $2 7h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $370 7h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 48¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 50¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 50¢ $12 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 50¢ $8 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records