Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2738…ebf4 world 77 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$66 (+1%) realized +$74 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate72%55W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days−$18
14 days+$39
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$222
other 27% −$298
sports 22% +$266
tech 11% +$107
crypto 2% −$193
politics 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +6.9% -3.3% 91% 35% -9.8%
≤30d 31 +6.8% -3.4% 87% 39% -8.6%
≤90d 47 +6.5% -3.6% 87% 36% -7.3%
all 76 -2.5% -11.7% 72% 30% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 30% -8.6%
10% -20.2% 9% -17.3%
15% -27.9% 4% -25.3%
20% -35.0% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$41 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses55 / 21
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage151d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Over 92¢ 90¢ $288 $280 −$8 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $225 +$66 +29%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $193 +$31 +16%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $172 +$22 +13%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $157 +$15 +9%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $148 +$8 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $130 +$18 +14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $119 +$11 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $112 +$7 +6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$11 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $88 +$13 +15%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $52 +$36 +68%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $453 −$347 -77%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $374 +$25 +7%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $345 +$29 +8%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $321 +$24 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $279 +$42 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $258 +$20 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $215 +$43 +20%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $212 +$3 +2%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $207 +$5 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $322 −$115 -36%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $312 +$10 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $308 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $327 −$19 -6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $579 +$38 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $290 +$37 +13%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 26 $226 +$26 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $160 +$66 +41%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 24 $148 +$12 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 23 $122 +$26 +22%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $220 −$98 -45%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 12 $214 +$8 +4%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 10 $74 +$10 +13%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 09 $54 +$3 +6%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? May 09 $54 −$32 -60%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $113 −$5 -5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 08 $69 +$5 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 05 $54 +$16 +29%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $315 +$25 +8%
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 7, 2026? Apr 11 $184 +$18 +10%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $142 +$43 +30%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 7, 2026? Apr 07 $131 +$11 +9%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $124 +$8 +7%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026? Apr 05 $234 +$10 +4%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 27, 2026? Mar 31 $102 +$13 +13%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 25, 2026? Mar 27 $90 +$12 +14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 25 $84 +$7 +8%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 26 $123 +$34 +28%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 24 $11 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 92¢ $290 11m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $290 19m
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 76¢ $225 41m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 98¢ $225 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $193 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 95¢ $193 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 83¢ $172 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $172 2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $157 2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 94¢ $148 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $148 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $130 5h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $119 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $119 26h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $112 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $112 28h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 89¢ $101 30h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $88 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 25¢ $88 32h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $52 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $53 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 11¢ $53 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 76¢ $399 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 93¢ $374 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $374 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $345 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 97¢ $345 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $321 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $321 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $280.20 · official $280.20 (match) · 189 history records