Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2741…90f3 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%59W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$6
14 days+$8
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 60 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 60 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 60 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses59 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage28d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 26, 8AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,600 on June 26, 8AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 58,800 on June 26, 8AM ET? Jun 26 $200 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above 1,540 on June 26, 5AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 26, 5AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 26, 5AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 26, 4AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 26, 4AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 26, 3AM ET? Jun 26 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 26, 3AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 58,400 on June 26, 3AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 26, 3AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 26, 2AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 26, 2AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 26, 2AM ET? Jun 26 $114 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 25, 7PM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 25, 7PM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 25, 7PM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 25, 3PM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $104 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 25, 10AM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 25, 8AM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 25, 7AM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 25, 6AM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 25, 3AM ET? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 24, 3PM ET? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 24, 2PM ET? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 24, 7AM ET? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 23, 7AM ET? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $52 +$1 +2%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 20, 6AM ET? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 20, 3AM ET? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,750 on June 19, 3PM ET? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,000 on June 19, 1PM ET? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,400 on June 19, 7AM ET? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,200 on June 19, 6AM ET? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 18, 12PM ET? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 65,000 on June 18, 7AM ET? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,770 on June 18, 3AM ET? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 63,000 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,000 on June 13, 7AM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,200 on June 13, 5AM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Ethereum above 1,700 on June 13, 4AM ET? Jun 13 $49 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 12, 2PM ET? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 12, 11AM ET? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 12, 10AM ET? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin above 58,800 on June 26, 8AM ET? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin above 60,600 on June 26, 8AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 26, 8AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 1h
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 26, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 3h
Ethereum above 1,540 on June 26, 5AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 3h
Ethereum above 1,610 on June 26, 5AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 4h
Bitcoin above 59,600 on June 26, 4AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 5h
Bitcoin above 61,800 on June 26, 4AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 5h
Bitcoin above 58,400 on June 26, 3AM ET? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 6h
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 26, 3AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 6h
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 26, 3AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 6h
Ethereum above 1,600 on June 26, 3AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 26, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 6h
Bitcoin above 61,000 on June 26, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 6h
Bitcoin above 61,200 on June 26, 2AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $114 6h
Bitcoin above 60,200 on June 25, 7PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 25, 7PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin above 61,600 on June 25, 7PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 14h
Ethereum above 1,650 on June 25, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $104 22h
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 25, 10AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 23h
Bitcoin above 62,600 on June 25, 8AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 25h
Bitcoin above 62,800 on June 25, 7AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 26h
Ethereum above 1,680 on June 25, 6AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 27h
Ethereum above 1,690 on June 25, 3AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $104 30h
Bitcoin above 60,400 on June 24, 3PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $100 41h
Bitcoin above 60,800 on June 24, 2PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $100 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 46h
Bitcoin above 63,800 on June 24, 7AM ET? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records