Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x274b…d408 sports 582 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,532 (-4%) realized −$5,403 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%241W / 333L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$1,322est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,045
7 days+$3,158
14 days+$4,113
30 days+$4,299
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$7,563
other 6% +$474
world 0% +$444
crypto 0% −$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +44.5% +30.8% 55% 55% +27.8%
≤30d 69 +48.8% +34.7% 58% 58% +33.3%
≤90d 460 +0.5% -9.0% 43% 43% -10.5%
all 574 -0.2% -9.7% 42% 42% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 42% -14.5%
10% -18.3% 42% -22.6%
15% -26.2% 41% -30.1%
20% -33.4% 41% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$209 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$5,403
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses241 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,322
Open positions2
Markets (closed)574 / 582
History coverage109d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 574 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 26¢ $150 $71 −$79 (-53%)
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $254 −$254 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $153 +$253 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $203 +$205 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$222 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $406 +$427 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $153 +$213 +140%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $152 −$152 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $559 +$587 +105%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $305 +$365 +120%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $406 −$406 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$91 +442%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $153 +$242 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 +$148 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $153 +$222 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $202 +$268 +133%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$111 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $203 +$226 +111%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 +$183 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$202 +982%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $204 +$284 +140%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$136 +134%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $163 +$92 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $146 +$173 +118%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $233 +$260 +112%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND W Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $68 +$66 +97%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $177 +$101 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $92 +$85 +93%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $196 −$105 -54%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 +$74 +145%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $152 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $203 7h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $153 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $406 8h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $97 11h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $152 11h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $152 25h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosn BUY 3¢ $15 28h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 28h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 28h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $305 29h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 31h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 31h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 31h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $102 32h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $203 34h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $51 34h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 26¢ $51 39h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $5 41h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Ghana wi BUY 7¢ $15 41h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $10 41h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 55¢ $152 46h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $153 2d
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.08 · official $71.08 (match) · 1810 history records