Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:22:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
27 0x274c…61df weather 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$60 (+9%) realized +$53 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate60%41W / 27L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$34
14 days+$58
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$18
weather 38% +$29
world 6% +$9
other 5% −$4
politics 3% −$6
finance 3% +$4
crypto 1% +$5
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +41.3% +27.8% 59% 54% -1.3%
≤30d 68 +20.0% +8.6% 60% 51% -2.1%
≤90d 68 +20.0% +8.6% 60% 51% -2.1%
all 68 +20.0% +8.6% 60% 51% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.6% 51% -2.1%
10% -1.8% 41% -11.5%
15% -11.3% 31% -20.0%
20% -20.0% 25% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 74
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? No 52¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +197%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 +$2 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$4 +206%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 +$5 +442%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $101 +$22 +22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$9 +91%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 +$5 +32%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$11 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$7 +660%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$6 +177%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 +$8 +525%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in June? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +22%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $6 +$4 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 09 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $14 +$2 +14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 08 $11 +$13 +114%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 07 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 07 $19 +$1 +7%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $20 +$6 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 52¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $18 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 17h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 17h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $8 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $19 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 58¢ $10 27h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 78¢ $8 30h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $5 41h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 81¢ $40 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 42h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $3 43h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Germany 32¢ $2 43h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 18¢ $1 43h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 66¢ $10 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 72¢ $20 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $6 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 8¢ $2 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 3d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $4 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $2 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.27 · official $43.27 (match) · 128 history records