Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:04:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x274d…198c sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-6%) realized −$65 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$69
world 28% −$7
other 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 2 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 50% -2.7%
≤90d 7 -42.3% -47.8% 29% 14% -16.9%
all 7 -42.3% -47.8% 29% 14% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 14% -16.9%
10% -52.8% 0% -24.8%
15% -57.3% 0% -32.1%
20% -61.5% 0% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage87d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $288 $284 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $214 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Jun 03 $487 +$53 +11%
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) May 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? May 04 $13 $0 -0%
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) Apr 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $39 −$3 -7%
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Nuria Brancaccio Mar 26 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by August 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $288 1h
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 5d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $167 5d
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $214 6d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs BESTIA Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club BUY largadosypelados 90¢ $487 18d
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) BUY FC Hermannstadt 6¢ $29 47d
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) BUY FC Hermannstadt 6¢ $23 47d
Spread: FC Hermannstadt (-2.5) BUY FC Hermannstadt 6¢ $6 47d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 47d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 47d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 48d
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 48d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2¢ $8 60d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2¢ $7 60d
Spread: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (-2.5) BUY Chongqing Tonglianglong FC 2¢ $2 60d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 60d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $17 60d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 60d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 60d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 60d
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 60d
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 23¢ $14 87d
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 23¢ $9 87d
Dubrovnik: Anhelina Kalinina vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Nuria Brancaccio 21¢ $23 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $283.65 · official $283.65 (match) · 25 history records