Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:05:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
27 0x274e…1cf7 sports 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$16 (+24%) realized +$7 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$17
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$33
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 50% +39.3%
≤30d 11 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 45% +41.0%
≤90d 11 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 45% +41.0%
all 18 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 39% +27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 39% +27.9%
10% -29.5% 39% +15.7%
15% -36.3% 39% +4.5%
20% -42.6% 33% -5.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage113d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 31¢ $0 $10 +$10 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 23¢ 26¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? No 30¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$8 +149%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $8 +$10 +127%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $3 $0 -12%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 +$4 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $7 +$8 +108%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Fight to Go the Distance? Feb 22 $5 +$5 +112%
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Feb 22 $1 +$2 +177%
Fight to Go the Distance? Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Car Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ante Delija vs. Serghei Spivac (Heavyweight, Main Car Feb 22 $2 −$1 -58%
UFC Fight Night: Josiah Harrell vs. Jacobe Smith (Welterweight, Main C Feb 22 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Zachary Reese (Middleweight, Main Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes $2 0m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $1 18m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 25¢ $1 19m
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 30¢ $1 36m
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 30¢ $1 36m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 38m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 48¢ $1 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 33¢ $1 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 40¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 22¢ $2 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 42¢ $3 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 44¢ $3 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 43¢ $5 2h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 50¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $1 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $10 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 7h
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 47¢ $4 8d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 47¢ $2 8d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 49¢ $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai BUY Edmen Shahbazyan 27¢ $1 8d
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) BUY John Yannis 10¢ $1 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 100¢ $10 113d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 47¢ $5 113d
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) SELL Uros Medic 100¢ $3 113d
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Uros Medic 36¢ $1 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.33 · official $7.81 · 45 history records