Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2751…d0b1 weather 490 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$143 (+3%) realized +$146 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate52%231W / 215L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day78.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$325
7 days−$198
14 days+$39
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$122
sports 1% −$4
other 1% −$9
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -11.1% -19.5% 42% 26% -18.4%
≤30d 446 +3.4% -6.5% 52% 30% -8.4%
≤90d 446 +3.4% -6.5% 52% 30% -8.4%
all 446 +3.4% -6.5% 52% 30% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 30% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 21% -17.2%
15% -23.6% 16% -25.2%
20% -31.1% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses231 / 215
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions43
Markets (closed)446 / 490
History coverage19d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day78.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 96¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? No 95¢ 94¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? No 80¢ 83¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 18? No 76¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 18? No 73¢ 78¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 18? No 75¢ 74¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 76¢ 72¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 99¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+397%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? No 66¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? No 61¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? No 56¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 17? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 18? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Yes 20¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 18? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $17 −$7 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$3 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 3? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 16? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 30? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 14? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +84%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 6m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 20m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 26m
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $10 30m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 47m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 50m
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 80¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.42 · official $147.42 (match) · 1775 history records