Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2753…fd56 crypto 664 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (405 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$434 (+5%) realized +$434 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%257W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day405.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (405 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 663 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 38% -6.8%
≤30d 663 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 38% -6.8%
≤90d 663 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 38% -6.8%
all 663 -9.7% -18.3% 39% 38% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover405.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 38% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 33% -15.7%
15% -33.3% 28% -23.9%
20% -39.8% 23% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$434
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses257 / 406
Open positions1
Markets (closed)663 / 664
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day405.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Down 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$4 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$8 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +567%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$10 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$17 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$17 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$22 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$40 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $1.78 (match) · 3500 history records