Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
27 0x2753…9ee1 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$44 (+22%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$58
sports 10% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +12.1%
≤30d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +12.1%
≤90d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +12.1%
all 3 +4.0% -5.9% 67% 67% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 67% +12.1%
10% -14.9% 33% +1.4%
15% -23.1% 33% -8.4%
20% -30.7% 0% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$10 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.69 per $1 lost it wins $5.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 +$15 +18%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$43 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 38h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.70 · official $94.70 (match) · 7 history records