Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
27 0x2753…e28a weather 1126 markets active 0h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,147 (+7%) realized +$4,107 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate79%887W / 238L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$205
7 days+$606
14 days+$825
30 days+$783
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$3,818
other 1% +$5
tech 0% −$12
culture 0% +$6
world 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +8.1% -2.2% 67% 41% +5.3%
≤30d 434 +1.5% -8.1% 67% 29% -5.3%
≤90d 855 +10.6% +0.1% 77% 31% -3.6%
all 1125 +9.2% -1.2% 79% 32% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 32% -3.7%
10% -10.7% 15% -12.9%
15% -19.3% 11% -21.3%
20% -27.2% 8% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$11 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$610
Realized+$4,107
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses887 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1125 / 1126
History coverage157d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $270 $288 +$18 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? Yes 92¢ 91¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? No 39¢ 100¢ $20 $51 +$31 (+156%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? No 90¢ 100¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? No 71¢ 100¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+113%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? Yes 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on January 30 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C or below on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on January 30? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$18 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$24 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $91 +$16 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 −$7 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$23 +224%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $31 +$28 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 +$10 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$80 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 −$9 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $10 −$8 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $81 +$31 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 +$37 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 +$12 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $91 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 −$9 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$33 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $132 +$39 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$18 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 +$26 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $40 −$6 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $51 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $51 +$15 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$8 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 19m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 56m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 97¢ $74 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $53 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $54 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 80¢ $61 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 67¢ $21 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 71¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $23 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 39¢ $21 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 91¢ $40 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 18h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $609.59 · official $609.59 (match) · 3332 history records