Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:17:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2754…1668 weather 533 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (317 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,978 (+32%) realized +$1,982 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%423W / 486L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day317.5pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$1
sports 31% +$42
other 13% +$40
world 7% +$31
politics 1% −$5
finance 1% $0
tech 1% +$7
crypto 0% +$4
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (317 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 731 +36.6% +23.6% 43% 29% -14.8%
≤30d 909 +32.8% +20.2% 47% 30% -12.2%
≤90d 909 +32.8% +20.2% 47% 30% -12.2%
all 909 +32.8% +20.2% 47% 30% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover317.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.2% 30% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here +8.7% 22% -20.6%
15% -1.8% 19% -28.3%
20% -11.5% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$1,982
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses423 / 486
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions30
Markets (closed)909 / 533
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day317.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 909 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists No 58¢ 62¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.50% and 3.99%? No 68¢ 97¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Under 48¢ 46¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 20%+? No 83¢ 99¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Diddy released from custody in 2026? No 67¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.4B? No 52¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 59¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+49%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 47¢ 92¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 61¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+45%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 72¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+38%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 66¢ 82¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C or below on June 16? No 87¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 44¢ 94¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+114%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? No 72¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+39%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 55¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+52%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 27¢ 23¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 56¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 68¢ 93¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 2nd overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 67¢ 84¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
FaZe roster change Before GTA VI? No 77¢ 13¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 82¢ 83¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 59¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 470 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 213.5 Jun 15 $0 −$4 -790%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 29? Jun 15 $1 −$2 -255%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 1? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 20? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +160%
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 21? Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Ferro Carril Oeste vs. Gimnasia Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Will EC Bahia win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +370%
Connecticut Sun vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28? Jun 15 $0 −$1 -191%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or below on May 12? Jun 15 $1 $0 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on May 12? Jun 15 $0 +$4 +1685%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 15 $1 +$5 +821%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 1? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +138%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -526%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on May 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on May 11? Jun 15 $0 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella & Iván Cepeda Castro advance to the seco Jun 15 $1 $0 +37%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 15 $0 +$3 +584%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +99%
São Paulo FC vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +260%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +1104%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +66%
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 169.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +224%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty: O/U 171.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? Jun 15 $0 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 11? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +459%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 4? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +296%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +208%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on May Jun 15 $0 +$2 +320%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 +45%
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $0 +$2 +408%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 15 $0 $0 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on May 21? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +178%
LoL: Uwinks vs L Guide Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $0 $0 +67%
Germany vs. Finland: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $0 +$3 +855%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 14? Jun 15 $0 $0 +69%
Will Ehime FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $0 +$3 +725%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C or below on May 28? Jun 15 $0 +$1 +265%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $0 −$2 -1029%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 11? Jun 15 $0 −$2 -497%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 27? Jun 15 $0 $0 -20%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 Jun 15 $0 +$2 +593%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 +77%
Game Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs BRUTE (+1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $7 17m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 24m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 25m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 62¢ $6 28m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 53¢ $5 30m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $5 42m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $5 42m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 49m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 50m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 50m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $5 56m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 58m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 84¢ $7 58m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $7 59m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? SELL No 78¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 25¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 34¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 25¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 27¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 21¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 21¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 18¢ $0 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 21¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 21¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 16¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 23¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 22¢ $0 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 24¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.94 · official $36.24 · 3500 history records