Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

27
0x2755…5016
crypto · 152 markets active 16d ago
0.0score
+$1,255,755 +162%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,252,064 · open +$3,691
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80,773
Realized+$1,252,064
Unrealized+$3,691
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses66 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)138 / 152
History coverage571d
Avg bet$5,101
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 14 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 76¢ 99¢ $23,752 $30,624 +$6,872 (+29%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 50¢ 44¢ $26,517 $22,898 −$3,618 (-14%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 51¢ 44¢ $12,318 $10,604 −$1,714 (-14%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 74¢ 84¢ $3,356 $3,832 +$476 (+14%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 48¢ 44¢ $4,007 $3,752 −$255 (-6%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 36¢ 75¢ $1,464 $3,047 +$1,582 (+108%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 41¢ $2,294 $2,419 +$126 (+5%)
Blue tsunami in 2026? Yes 38¢ 42¢ $1,135 $1,255 +$119 (+11%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $1,050 $1,087 +$37 (+4%)
Blue wave in 2026? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $653 $662 +$10 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? No 64¢ 100¢ $183 $286 +$103 (+56%)
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $73 $96 +$23 (+31%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 73¢ 99¢ $66 $89 +$23 (+35%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $80 $80 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes 26¢ 34¢ $32 $41 +$9 (+29%)
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $7,400 $0 −$7,400 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? May 04 $436 +$224 +52%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $1,759 +$286 +16%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Apr 20 $7,400 −$7,400 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in April? Apr 14 $885 +$839 +95%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $4,219 −$994 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $20,373 −$13,229 -65%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 08 $1,320 −$720 -54%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $13,285 −$3,269 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 07 $13,242 −$4,492 -34%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $20,129 −$3,693 -18%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $365 +$135 +37%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $1,579 +$618 +39%
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $842 +$209 +25%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $5,648 +$870 +15%
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? Mar 23 $1,080 +$175 +16%
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? Mar 23 $2,614 +$281 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 21 $14,362 +$2,856 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 18 $5,319 +$965 +18%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 18 $127 −$127 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Mar 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 14 $183 +$103 +56%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $800 +$311 +39%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 05 $4,125 +$875 +21%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 02 $5 +$1 +25%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 02 $2,735 −$2,728 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 02 $2,962 −$2,944 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $198 +$27 +14%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $218 +$90 +41%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $400 +$100 +25%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 15? Feb 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in January? Feb 28 $576 −$576 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Feb 28 $3,618 −$3,618 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? Feb 28 $2,704 −$2,704 -100%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $4,327 −$4,327 -100%
Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15? Feb 01 $1,067 +$132 +12%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 01 $6,617 +$9,168 +139%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in December? Jan 01 $895 +$105 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $899 +$300 +33%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Jan 01 $843 +$415 +49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,230 +$770 +63%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $6,164 −$1,048 -17%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in December? Jan 01 $1,708 +$1,307 +76%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in December? Jan 01 $2,424 +$594 +24%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in December? Jan 01 $9,300 +$700 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Jan 01 $9,309 +$7,889 +85%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%? Dec 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the next government funding bill be a clean CR? Dec 25 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Dec 25 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 3-6%? Dec 25 $220 −$220 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on October 19? Dec 25 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 48% +$1,025,757
crypto 22% −$2,311
world 21% −$16,078
other 9% +$248,387
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 15d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $35 16d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 17d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 23d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $33 23d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 23d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 23d
Blue wave in 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $134 23d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 24d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 48¢ $3,517 35d
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $53 36d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $0 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $9 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $27 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $21 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $4 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $7 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $4 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $250 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $250 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $750 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $15 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $25 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $31 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $26 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $5 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $3 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $33 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $8 46d
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House BUY Yes 50¢ $100 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 20 -8.8% -17.5% 55% 55% -30.4%
all 138 +46.7% +32.8% 48% 46% +116.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.8% 46% +116.2%
10% ← realistic here +20.0% 36% +95.5%
15% +8.4% 28% +76.6%
20% -2.2% 22% +59.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80,772.61 · official $80,772.62 (match) · 3500 history records