Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:28:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2757…b41d politics 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate19%10W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$2
other 20% +$5
sports 18% −$2
crypto 8% $0
world 8% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 -15.6% -23.7% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 7 -19.1% -26.8% 43% 0% -9.3%
all 54 -8.2% -17.0% 19% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 2% -9.6%
10% -24.9% 2% -18.2%
15% -32.2% 2% -26.1%
20% -38.8% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses10 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage237d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $84 $84 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $77 +$5 +6%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $78 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $6 −$2 -40%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $80 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 06 $82 $0 +0%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 31 $78 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar Jan 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $81 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $2 $0 -17%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $85 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $81 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $83 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 06 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $167 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 01 $85 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $2 $0 -17%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $81 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $84 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $168 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Dec 19 $80 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $83 −$1 -1%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 03 $87 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 01 $86 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $1 $0 -50%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $88 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Nov 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 09 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $84 1h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $81 36h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $81 6d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 94¢ $77 10d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 26d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $76 26d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $76 28d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 39d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 105d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $80 105d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $80 107d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $79 111d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $79 112d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $82 138d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 143d
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 144d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar SELL No 100¢ $80 147d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Januar BUY No 100¢ $80 148d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $81 149d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 150d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $80 151d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $80 152d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 153d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 154d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 155d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $83 155d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.96 · official $83.96 (match) · 183 history records