Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
27 0x2758…7325 crypto 282 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$87 (+7%) realized +$88 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%66W / 213L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$81
other 7% −$56
sports 6% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +22.0% +10.4% 46% 46% +26.4%
≤30d 45 -25.9% -32.9% 31% 31% -21.5%
≤90d 279 +13.2% +2.4% 24% 21% -2.9%
all 279 +13.2% +2.4% 24% 21% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 21% -2.9%
10% -7.4% 19% -12.2%
15% -16.3% 17% -20.7%
20% -24.5% 15% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses66 / 213
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)279 / 282
History coverage68d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France leading at halftime? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Yes 48¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -86%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $2 +$7 +344%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $5 +$5 +98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 +$26 +259%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $55 −$48 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $2 +$4 +233%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $4 +$2 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $2 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 30 $2 +$3 +138%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 30 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 28 $4 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $59 26h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 26h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 28h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $2 28h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $2 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $2 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 30¢ $3 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2 2d
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 5d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.45 · official $7.45 (match) · 939 history records