Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x275b…5bbe crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-2%) realized −$27 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$581
other 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.2% -24.1% 47% 47% -44.2%
≤30d 15 -16.2% -24.1% 47% 47% -44.2%
≤90d 15 -16.2% -24.1% 47% 47% -44.2%
all 15 -16.2% -24.1% 47% 47% -44.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 47% -44.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 47% -49.5%
15% -38.0% 40% -54.4%
20% -44.1% 40% -58.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$121 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $102 $99 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $414 −$414 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$52 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$50 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $388 +$242 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $89 −$89 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 1m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $207 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $207 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $52 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $388 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $199 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $89 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.60 · official $98.60 (match) · 36 history records