Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
27 0x275c…349c sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$192
other 32% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+36.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +50.5% +36.1% 23% 23% +14.8%
≤30d 13 +50.5% +36.1% 23% 23% +14.8%
≤90d 13 +50.5% +36.1% 23% 23% +14.8%
all 13 +50.5% +36.1% 23% 23% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.1% 23% +14.8%
10% +23.1% 23% +3.8%
15% +11.2% 23% -6.2%
20% +0.3% 23% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +111% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$15 · ×7.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $167 +$85 +51%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $51 −$14 -26%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $161 +$97 +60%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $193 −$4 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$8 -7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $50 +$140 +280%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $98 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $50 46m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 74¢ $17 48m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $40 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $10 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $45 51m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 51m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 7¢ $38 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 9¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $254 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $10 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $3 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $45 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $53 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $9 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $0 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 2¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 2¢ $1 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 2¢ $0 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 2¢ $0 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 2¢ $0 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 2¢ $2 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $164 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $91 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $98 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 41¢ $19 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 51 history records