Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:40:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
27 0x275e…bdcc other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$419 (-26%) realized −$419 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +19.0% +7.6% 78% 67% -19.1%
≤30d 9 +19.0% +7.6% 78% 67% -19.1%
≤90d 9 +19.0% +7.6% 78% 67% -19.1%
all 9 +19.0% +7.6% 78% 67% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 67% -19.1%
10% -2.7% 56% -26.8%
15% -12.1% 56% -33.9%
20% -20.7% 22% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$333 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$419
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage7d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $156 +$193 +124%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $368 +$35 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $98 +$43 +43%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $98 +$47 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$162 +80%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $572 −$568 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 +$5 +17%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19 +$9 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $348 27m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $368 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $97 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $98 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $98 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $366 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $68 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $135 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $254 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $286 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $19 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records