Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
27 0x275e…3cf4 sports 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$107 (-3%) realized −$93 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$322
7 days+$211
14 days−$76
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$39
other 12% −$116
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.1% -16.8% 50% 50% -2.1%
≤30d 21 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 43% -11.5%
≤90d 21 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 43% -11.5%
all 21 -19.2% -26.9% 43% 43% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 43% -11.5%
10% -33.9% 43% -19.9%
15% -40.3% 43% -27.7%
20% -46.1% 33% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$95 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage10d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 24¢ 18¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$49 +49%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$18 -17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $253 +$163 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $102 −$21 -21%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $203 +$149 +73%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $299 −$295 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $202 +$126 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$88 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 +$147 +72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $303 −$226 -74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $272 +$176 +64%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$164 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $77 −$76 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $391 −$113 -29%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $75 −$73 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $150 10m
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 33m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $101 33m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $303 57m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $84 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $416 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 32¢ $80 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 95¢ $351 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $203 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $253 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $299 4d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $328 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 61¢ $202 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $290 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $202 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $260 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $203 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 56¢ $73 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $101 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $101 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 14¢ $91 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 15¢ $103 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $101 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $448 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $272 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.95 · official $335.95 (match) · 43 history records