Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:17:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
27 0x2760…c0ee sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$64
other 25% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -11.6% -20.0% 54% 40% -18.6%
≤30d 48 -11.6% -20.0% 54% 40% -18.6%
≤90d 48 -11.6% -20.0% 54% 40% -18.6%
all 48 -11.6% -20.0% 54% 40% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 40% -18.6%
10% -27.7% 29% -26.4%
15% -34.6% 21% -33.5%
20% -41.1% 19% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 Over 83¢ 80¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 76¢ 56¢ $26 $19 −$7 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 +$4 +82%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $27 +$16 +59%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$2 +8%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 +$11 +69%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $32 +$3 +9%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $7 +$2 +28%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $28 +$10 +34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $25 +$4 +15%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$8 -54%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $6 +$1 +25%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $14 +$1 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 −$24 -73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$12 +59%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $12 +$19 +157%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 −$19 -61%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$9 -86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $31 +$10 +32%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -87%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 +$5 +69%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$7 +104%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $12 +$2 +19%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $11 +$1 +8%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 +$1 +16%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$19 -75%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 −$14 -66%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$12 +39%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $27 +$4 +15%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $13 +$15 +116%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $38 −$25 -67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $36 −$14 -38%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $22 +$2 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +145%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $26 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $27 2h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $27 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $27 5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $25 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $5 7h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $32 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 73¢ $28 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $28 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $7 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $7 27h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 85¢ $25 28h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $15 28h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 0¢ $0 45h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $22 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $14 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $32 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $6 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 38¢ $12 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $30 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.06 · official $44.06 (match) · 104 history records