Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

27 0x2763…5402 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$24 (+20%) realized +$17 · open +$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown21%max

Avg bet$17per market

Trades / day8.4pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+43.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+58.7%	+43.6%	80%	60%	+26.6%
≤30d	5	+58.7%	+43.6%	80%	60%	+26.6%
≤90d	5	+58.7%	+43.6%	80%	60%	+26.6%
all	5	+58.7%	+43.6%	80%	60%	+26.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.4 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+43.6%	60%	+26.6%
10%	+29.8%	60%	+14.5%
15%	+17.3%	40%	+3.4%
20%	+5.8%	40%	-6.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 86% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +59% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×5.83 per $1 lost it wins $5.83

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized+$17

Unrealized+$7

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage2d

Avg bet$17

Trades / day8.4

Drawdown21%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	7¢	$21	$28	+$7 (+32%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	No	54¢	54¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$46	+$15	+32%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 28	$13	+$23	+177%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$5	+$6	+113%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Jun 28	$5	$0	+7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$21	−$7	-35%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	54¢	$10	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$39	1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$22	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	57¢	$22	32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$46	41h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$35	42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	60¢	$11	42h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5	43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	92¢	$5	43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	8¢	$5	43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	14¢	$9	43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	20¢	$9	43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	26¢	$12	44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	35¢	$13	44h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.08 · official $37.85 (match) · 16 history records